Working Paper: NBER ID: w29799
Authors: Erkmen G. Aslim; Shinyi Chou; Kuhelika De
Abstract: Is healthcare employment recession proof? We examine the hypothesis that healthcare employment is stable across the business cycle. We explicitly distinguish between a negative aggregate demand and supply shock in studying how healthcare employment responds to recessions, and show that this response depends largely on the type of the exogenous shock triggering the recession. We find that aggregate healthcare employment responds procyclically during demand-induced recessions but remains stable during supply-induced recessions. Further, there is significant heterogeneity in the employment responses of the healthcare sub-sectors. While healthcare employment in most sub-sectors responds procyclically during recessions caused by both negative demand and supply shocks, that in nursing dominant sectors responds countercyclically. However, the procyclical response of sub-sectors and countercyclical response of nursing dominant sectors are both relatively weaker during recessions caused by a negative aggregate supply shock than a demand shock, thus balancing out and contributing to an overall null employment response of the aggregate healthcare sector during recessions caused by a supply shock. More generally, by isolating the recessionary impact of the negative aggregate demand shock from supply shock on healthcare employment, we provide new empirical evidence that healthcare employment in general is not recession proof.
Keywords: Healthcare Employment; Business Cycles; Aggregate Demand Shock; Aggregate Supply Shock
JEL Codes: C32; E32; I11; J22; J23
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| negative aggregate demand shocks (E00) | healthcare employment (I11) |
| negative aggregate supply shocks (E00) | healthcare employment (I11) |
| negative aggregate demand shocks (E00) | decline in personal healthcare expenditures (H51) |
| decline in personal healthcare expenditures (H51) | healthcare employment (I11) |
| most healthcare subsectors (I11) | procyclical behavior during recessions (E32) |
| nursing-dominant sectors (I11) | countercyclical response during demand-induced recessions (E32) |
| procyclical responses of various subsectors + countercyclical responses of nursing sectors (J49) | overall stable employment level in healthcare during supply-induced recessions (I11) |