Working Paper: NBER ID: w29741
Authors: Vincenzo Galasso; Vincent Pons; Paola Profeta; Michael Becher; Sylvain Brouard; Martial Foucault
Abstract: Millions of people refuse COVID-19 vaccination. Using original data from two surveys in nine OECD countries, we analyze the determinants of anti-vax intentions in December 2020 and show that half of the anti-vax individuals were vaccinated by summer 2021. Vaccinations were more likely among individuals aged 50+, exposed to COVID-19, compliant with public restrictions, more informed on traditional media, trusting scientists, and less concerned about vaccines’ side effects. We run a survey experiment with informational messages. In EU countries, a message about protecting health largely increases vaccinations, even among anti-vax individuals. In the U.K. and U.S., a message about protecting the economy generates similar effects. Our findings suggest that informational campaigns should adopt adequate narratives and address concerns about vaccines’ side effects.
Keywords: COVID-19; Vaccination; Antivax Intentions; OECD Countries
JEL Codes: D83; I12; I18
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Age (J14) | Vaccination Rates (Y10) |
| Trust in Scientists (C90) | Vaccination Intentions (I18) |
| Trust in Scientists (C90) | Vaccination Behavior (I12) |
| Information Exposure (D82) | Vaccination Behavior (I12) |
| Altruistic Messages (D64) | Vaccination Intentions (I18) |
| Altruistic Messages (D64) | Vaccination Behavior (I12) |
| Altruistic Messages (for antivax) (D64) | Antivax Intentions (Y50) |
| Altruistic Messages (for antivax) (D64) | Vaccination Likelihood (C46) |