Working Paper: NBER ID: w29722
Authors: Martha J. Bailey; Lea J. Bart; Vanessa Wanner Lang
Abstract: Multiple episodes in U.S. history demonstrate that birth rates fall in response to recessions. However, the 2020 COVID-19 recession differed from earlier periods in that employment and access to contraception and abortion fell, as reproductive health centers across the country temporarily closed or reduced their capacity. This paper exploits novel survey and administrative data to examine how reductions in access to reproductive health care during 2020 affected contraceptive efficacy among low-income women. Accounting for 2020’s reductions in access to contraception and the economic slowdown, our results predict a modest decline in births of 1.1 percent in 2021 for low-income women. Further accounting for reductions in access to abortion implies that birth rates may even rise for low-income women. These results also suggest that already economically disadvantaged families disproportionately affected by the COVID-19 economy will experience a large increase in unplanned births.
Keywords: COVID-19; contraceptive use; low-income women; birth rates
JEL Codes: J1; J11; J13
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Reduced access to reproductive health care due to COVID-19 restrictions (J13) | Changes in contraceptive efficacy among low-income women (J13) |
| Reduced access to contraception (J13) | Decline in births for low-income women (J13) |
| Changes in contraceptive efficacy (D18) | 8 fewer pregnancies per 100 women seeking care at PPMI (J13) |
| Economic downturn (F44) | Reduction in birth rates (J13) |
| Reduced access to reproductive health services and abortion (J13) | Increase in unplanned births among disadvantaged families (J13) |
| Changes in access due to COVID-19 (I14) | Offset expected declines in births typically associated with economic downturns (J19) |