Working Paper: NBER ID: w2966
Authors: Christina Romer; David Romer
Abstract: This paper uses the historical record to isolate episodes in which there were large monetary disturbances not caused by output fluctuations. It then tests whether these monetary changes have important real effects. The central part of the paper is a study of postwar U.S. monetary history. We identify six episodes in which the Federal Reserve in effect decided to attempt to create a recession to reduce inflation. We find that a shift to anti-inflationary policy led, on average, to a rise in the unemployment rate of two percentage points, and that this effect is highly statistically significant and robust to a variety of changes in specification. We reach three other major conclusions. First, the real effects of these monetary disturbances are highly persistent. Second, the six shocks that we identify account for a considerable fraction of postwar economic fluctuations. And third, evidence from the interwar era also suggests that monetary disturbances have large real effects.
Keywords: monetary policy; real effects; historical analysis
JEL Codes: E52; E58
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Monetary shocks (E39) | Output (Y10) |
| Anti-inflationary policies (E64) | Unemployment rate (J64) |
| Monetary disturbances (E49) | Economic fluctuations (E32) |
| Monetary disturbances (interwar) (E49) | Real effects (E65) |