Working Paper: NBER ID: w29639
Authors: Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach; Sarah Turner
Abstract: Weak labor markets typically lead young workers to invest in skills. High unemployment during COVID diverged from prior downturns: enrollment at community colleges dropped by 9.5 percent between 2019 and 2020, with the drop larger among men. COVID disruptions generated supply-side impacts on courses of study requiring significant capital and “hands on” experiential learning, particularly programs that deliver of assembly, repair and maintenance (ARM) skills. Community colleges that had relative concentrations of credentials in ARM fields pre-pandemic experienced relatively large enrollment declines. The decline in ARM enrollment explains nearly all the difference in enrollment declines by gender during COVID.
Keywords: Community Colleges; Enrollment Changes; COVID-19; Labor Market; Assembly Repair Maintenance
JEL Codes: I23
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| COVID-19 disruptions (F69) | community college enrollment declines (I21) |
| higher concentration of ARM programs (I23) | larger enrollment declines (I23) |
| challenges of shifting hands-on courses online (A22) | larger enrollment declines (I23) |
| decline in ARM enrollment (I23) | difference in enrollment declines by gender (I24) |
| COVID-19 disruptions (F69) | challenges of shifting hands-on courses online (A22) |