Working Paper: NBER ID: w29630
Authors: Christine L. Exley; Nils H. Lehr; Stephen J. Terry
Abstract: Need fluctuates over the business cycle. We conduct a survey revealing a desire for nonprofit activities to countercyclically expand during downturns. We then demonstrate, using comprehensive US nonprofit data drawn from millions of tax returns, that the public’s hopes are disappointed. Nonprofit expenditure, revenue, and balance sheets fluctuate procyclically: contracting during national and local downturns. This finding is evident even for a narrow group of nonprofits the public most wishes would expand during downturns, e.g., those providing critical needs like food or housing. Our new facts contribute to the charitable giving, nonprofit, and business cycle literatures.
Keywords: No keywords provided
JEL Codes: D64; E30; L30
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Nonprofit expenditure (L39) | Local income (H79) |
| Nonprofit expenditure (L39) | Economic downturns (E32) |
| Nonprofit revenue (L39) | Economic downturns (E32) |
| High DCR nonprofits revenue (L31) | Economic downturns (E32) |
| Nonprofit assets (L39) | Economic downturns (E32) |
| Nonprofit liabilities (L39) | Economic downturns (E32) |
| Nonprofit expenditure (L39) | Core programs (C88) |