Working Paper: NBER ID: w29568
Authors: James C. Davis; Holden A. Diethorn; Gerald R. Marschke; Andrew J. Wang
Abstract: Employment in STEM occupations suffered smaller peak-to-trough percentage declines than non-STEM occupations during the Great Recession and COVID-19 recession, suggesting a relative resiliency of STEM employment. We exploit the sudden peak-to-trough declines in STEM and non-STEM employment during the COVID-19 recession to measure STEM recession-resiliency, decomposing our difference-in-differences estimate into parts explained by various sources. We find that STEM knowledge importance on the job explains the greatest share of STEM employment resiliency, and that workers in non-STEM occupations who nonetheless use STEM knowledge experienced better employment outcomes. STEM employment resiliency may explain the mild effects of COVID-19 on innovative activity.
Keywords: STEM employment; COVID-19; recession resiliency; R&D; patenting
JEL Codes: I1; J21; O3
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| STEM occupation (C87) | smaller peak-to-trough decline in employment (J63) |
| importance of STEM knowledge on the job (J24) | STEM employment resiliency (I23) |
| STEM employment resiliency (I23) | levels of inventive activity during the pandemic (O36) |
| STEM knowledge (C89) | better employment outcomes in non-STEM occupations (J79) |