Working Paper: NBER ID: w29566
Authors: Ricardo Godoy; Dean Karlan; Jonathan Zinman
Abstract: What should researchers do when confronted with surprising results? Financial access innovations usually leave “temptation” spending unaffected or reduced. However, we found that promotion of savings lockboxes in a largely autarkic society increased alcohol consumption and blood pressure, despite no one reporting intentions to save for alcohol. To probe mechanisms that could explain this pattern, we then used ethnographic methods, including direct observations of drinking (“scans”) and debriefing interviews to discuss the earlier trial results. We learn that sponsoring drinks confers prestige, but the stigma attached to drinking by outsiders likely discouraged reporting intentions to save for it.
Keywords: savings; alcohol consumption; randomized controlled trial; ethnographic methods; Tsimane
JEL Codes: D12; I12; O15
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Alcohol consumption (L66) | Blood pressure (G21) |
| Alcohol consumption (L66) | Social investment (O35) |
| Savings lockboxes (G51) | Alcohol consumption (L66) |
| Savings lockboxes (G51) | Asset accumulation (G51) |
| Savings lockboxes (G51) | Overall consumption (D10) |