Working Paper: NBER ID: w29565
Authors: Felipe Barrera-Osorio; Adriana D. Kugler; Mikko I. Silliman
Abstract: We follow the labor market outcomes of applicants who were randomized into job training a year and a half before the pandemic through the subsequent economic turmoil that resulted from COVID-19. Despite persistently improved labor market outcomes of training participants prior to March 2020, we show that job losses resulting from the pandemic washed away all the benefits of the program. A year and a half after the initial scars of the pandemic, there are no visible signs of recovery of trainees’ labor market outcomes.
Keywords: job training; COVID-19; labor market outcomes
JEL Codes: J20
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Magnitude of economic shock (F69) | Loss of benefits from job training (J32) |
| Short duration of training program (M53) | Loss of benefits from job training (J32) |
| Targeting of service sector jobs (J68) | Loss of benefits from job training (J32) |
| Better pre-pandemic outcomes (P17) | Larger relative declines during pandemic for training participants (I21) |
| No differential recovery (C22) | Reevaluation of active labor market programs (J68) |
| COVID-19 pandemic (H12) | Labor market outcomes for job training participants (J68) |
| Job training program admission (M53) | Loss of benefits during COVID-19 (J32) |
| Job training program admission (M53) | Pre-pandemic employment and earnings (J39) |
| Job training program admission (M53) | Employment rates (J68) |