Working Paper: NBER ID: w29498
Authors: Joshua Aizenman; Alex Cukierman; Yothin Jinjarak; Weining Xin
Abstract: Prior to the appearance of the Omicron variant, observations on countries like the UK that have accumulated a large fraction of inoculated individuals suggest that, although initially, vaccines have little effect on new infections, they strongly reduce the share of mortality out of a given pool of infections. This paper examines the extent to which this phenomenon is more general by testing the hypothesis that the ratio of lagged mortality to current infections is decreasing in the total number of vaccines per one hundred individuals in the pre-Omicron period, in a pooled time-series, cross-section sample with weekly observations for up to 208 countries. The main finding is that vaccines moderate the share of mortality from a given pool of lagged infections at sufficiently high levels of vaccination rates, which is essentially a favorable shift in the tradeoff between life preservation and economic performance. The practical lesson is that, in the presence of a sufficiently high share of inoculated individuals, governments can shade down containment measures, even as infections are still rampant, without significant adverse effects on mortality.
Keywords: Vaccines; Mortality; COVID-19; Public Health; Economics
JEL Codes: F42; F44; I18
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| higher vaccination rates (I19) | decrease in the mortality-to-infections ratio (I14) |
| cumulative level of vaccinations (C46) | ratio of new deaths to new infections (I12) |
| vaccination rates (I14) | share of mortality from infections (I12) |
| income per capita (D31) | mortality-to-infections ratio (I12) |
| lagged dependent variable (C29) | mortality-to-infections ratio (I12) |