Working Paper: NBER ID: w29497
Authors: Clare Halloran; Rebecca Jack; James C. Okun; Emily Oster
Abstract: We estimate the impact of district-level schooling mode (in-person versus hybrid or distance learning) on test scores. We combine Spring 2021 state standardized test score data with comprehensive data on schooling in the 2020-21 school year across 12 states. We find that pass rates declined compared to prior years and that these declines were larger in districts with less in-person instruction. Passing rates in math declined by 14.2 percentage points on average; we estimate this decline was 10.1 percentage points smaller for districts fully in-person. Changes in English language arts scores were smaller, but were significantly larger in districts with larger populations of students who are Black, Hispanic or eligible for free and reduced price lunch.
Keywords: COVID-19; schooling mode; student test scores; education policy
JEL Codes: I14; I21; I24
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| in-person instruction (Y20) | improved test scores (I24) |
| mode of schooling (I21) | decline in pass rates for standardized tests (I24) |
| full in-person instruction (Y20) | smaller decline in test scores (D29) |
| mode of schooling (I21) | impact on ELA scores (I24) |
| access to in-person learning (I24) | varied by demographics (J19) |
| absence of in-person learning (I21) | greater academic declines (I24) |