Working Paper: NBER ID: w29468
Authors: Robert M. Lantis; Erik T. Nesson
Abstract: Do basketball players exhibit a hot hand? Results from controlled shooting situations suggest the answer is yes, while results from in-game shooting are mixed. Are the differing results because a hot hand is only present in similar shots or because testing for the hot hand in game situations is difficult? Combining repeated shots in a location and shots across locations, the NBA 3-Point Contests mimics game situations without many of the confounding factors. Using data on the 1986-2019 contests, we find a hot hand, but only within shot locations. Shooting streaks increase a hot hand only if a player makes his previous shot and only within locations. Even making three shots in a row has no effect on making the next shot if a player moves locations. Our results suggest that any hot hand in basketball is only present in extremely similar shooting situations and likely not in the run-of-play.
Keywords: hot hand; NBA; 3-point contest; basketball; shooting performance
JEL Codes: D81; D91; Z20; Z29
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Making the previous shot (Y60) | Probability of making the next shot (C69) |
| Moving to a different shooting location (J62) | Probability of making the next shot based on previous successes (C29) |
| Making streaks of consecutive shots (C41) | Hot hand effect (C92) |
| Missing a shot after a streak (Y60) | Advantage for the next shot (C73) |