Working Paper: NBER ID: w29464
Authors: Kerwin Kofi Charles; Matthew S. Johnson; Nagisa Tadjfar
Abstract: The long-term decline in U.S. workers' attempts to organize labor unions accelerated after 2000. We find that the swift rise of imports from China arising from a change in trade policy accounts for nearly all of this post-2000 acceleration: union certification elections decreased substantially among workers in manufacturing industries directly exposed to imports, but also among workers indirectly exposed through their local labor market. Consistent with a simple model of workers' decision to seek union representation, direct exposure lowered the expected wage gain from unionization, whereas indirect exposure increased the cost of job loss - both of which discourage organizing.
Keywords: union organizing; trade competition; Chinese imports
JEL Codes: F16; J41; J50; J51; J52
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Direct exposure to Chinese import competition (F69) | Union organizing efforts (J51) |
| Indirect exposure to Chinese import competition (F69) | Union organizing efforts (J51) |
| Direct exposure to Chinese import competition (F69) | Firm profitability (L21) |
| Firm profitability (L21) | Expected wage gains from unionization (J50) |
| Commuting zone exposure to imports (R15) | Union organizing efforts (J51) |
| Granting of permanent normal trade relations (F13) | Union organizing efforts (J51) |
| Indirect exposure to Chinese import competition (F69) | Job loss risk (J63) |