Working Paper: NBER ID: w29372
Authors: David G. Blanchflower; Alex Bryson
Abstract: Economic shocks are notoriously difficult to predict but recent research suggests qualitative metrics about economic actors’ expectations are predictive of downturns. We show consumer expectations indices from both the Conference Board and the University of Michigan predict economic downturns up to 18 months in advance in the United States, both at national and at state-level. All the recessions since the 1980s have been predicted by at least 10 and sometimes many more point drops in these expectations indices. A single monthly rise of at least 0.3 percentage points in the unemployment rate also predicts recession, as does two consecutive months of employment rate declines. The economic situation in 2021 is exceptional, however, since unprecedented direct government intervention in the labor market through furlough-type arrangements has enabled employment rates to recover quickly from the huge downturn in 2020. However, downward movements in consumer expectations in the last six months suggest the economy in the United States is entering recession now (Autumn 2021) even though employment and wage growth figures suggest otherwise.
Keywords: consumer expectations; economic downturns; unemployment; qualitative metrics
JEL Codes: E17; J01
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Consumer expectations indices from the Conference Board and the University of Michigan (D12) | Economic downturns (E32) |
| A rise of at least 0.3 percentage points in the unemployment rate (F66) | Recession (E32) |
| Two consecutive months of declines in employment rates (J63) | Recession (E32) |
| Decline in consumer expectations (D12) | Increase in likelihood of recession (E32) |