Working Paper: NBER ID: w29339
Authors: Edward Miguel; Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak
Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic has upended health and living standards around the world. This article provides an interim overview of these effects, with a particular focus on low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Economists have explained how the pandemic is likely to have differential consequences for LMICs, and demand distinct policy responses, compared to rich countries. We survey the rapidly expanding body of empirical research that documents its many adverse economic and non-economic effects in terms of living standards, education, health, and gender equality, which appear to be unprecedented in depth and scale. We also review research on successful and failed policy responses, including the failure to ensure widespread vaccine coverage in LMICs, which is needed to end the pandemic. We close with a discussion of implications for public policy in LMICs, and for the institutions of international governance, given the likelihood of future pandemics and other major shocks (e.g., climate).
Keywords: COVID-19; low and middle-income countries; economic consequences; policy responses
JEL Codes: I15; O1
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| COVID-19 pandemic (H12) | adverse effects on living standards in LMICs (F63) |
| COVID-19 pandemic (H12) | adverse effects on health in LMICs (I14) |
| COVID-19 pandemic (H12) | adverse effects on education in LMICs (I25) |
| COVID-19 pandemic (H12) | adverse effects on gender equality in LMICs (F63) |
| lockdown measures (P37) | worsening of living conditions in LMICs (O15) |
| limited access to vaccines (I14) | ongoing health crises in LMICs (I15) |
| limited access to vaccines (I14) | economic instability in LMICs (F65) |