Working Paper: NBER ID: w29325
Authors: Andrew I. Friedson; Moyan Li; Katherine Meckel; Daniel I. Rees; Daniel W. Sacks
Abstract: Are teenage and adult smoking causally related? Recent anti-tobacco policy is predicated on the assumption that preventing teenagers from smoking will ensure that fewer adults smoke, but direct evidence in support of this assumption is scant. Using data from three nationally representative sources and cigarette taxes experienced as a teenager as an instrument, we document a strong, positive relationship between teenage and adult smoking: specifically, deterring 10 teenagers from smoking through raising cigarette taxes roughly translates into 5 or 6 fewer eventual adult smokers. We conclude that efforts to reduce teenage smoking can have important, long-lasting consequences on smoking participation and, presumably, health.
Keywords: cigarette taxes; teenage smoking; adult smoking; public health
JEL Codes: H21; I12
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| teenage smoking (J13) | adult smoking (I12) |
| cigarette taxes (H71) | teenage smoking (J13) |
| cigarette taxes (H71) | adult smoking (I12) |