Working Paper: NBER ID: w29315
Authors: Pablo Fajgelbaum; Amit Khandelwal
Abstract: In 2018, the US launched a trade war with China, an abrupt departure from its historical leadership in integrating global markets. By late 2019, the US had imposed tariffs on roughly $350 billion of Chinese imports, and China had retaliated on $100 billion US exports. Economists have used a diversity of data and methods to assess the impacts of the trade war on the US, China and other countries. This article reviews what we have learned to date from this work.
Keywords: No keywords provided
JEL Codes: F0
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| US consumers of imported goods (F61) | Bear the brunt of the tariffs (F14) |
| Increase in tariffs (F69) | Increase in tariff-inclusive import prices (F14) |
| Increase in tariff-inclusive import prices (F14) | Decrease in aggregate real income in US (F62) |
| Increase in tariff-inclusive import prices (F14) | Decrease in aggregate real income in China (F62) |
| Tariff changes (F14) | Uncorrelated with previous price and import trends across products (F14) |
| Tariffs (F19) | Distributional consequences affecting employment and consumption patterns (F62) |