Working Paper: NBER ID: w29307
Authors: Pinka Chatterji; Yue Li
Abstract: In this paper, we examine the labor market recovery from the COVID-19 recession and test for effects of termination of pandemic unemployment insurance programs among 15-24-year-olds. We use data from the January 2016-October 2022 Current Population Survey. Using regression-based methods, we show that while 15-19-year-olds experienced a brisk, full recovery in labor market outcomes from the COVID-19 recession, the recovery was sluggish and incomplete among 20-24-year-olds, with some work outcomes lagging below pre-pandemic norms well into 2022. Termination of pandemic UI programs led to increased work hours and full-time employment among 20-24-year-olds but did not have these effects among 15-19-year-olds.
Keywords: No keywords provided
JEL Codes: I0; J0
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Termination of pandemic unemployment insurance programs (J65) | Increased work hours among 20-24-year-olds (J29) |
| Termination of pandemic unemployment insurance programs (J65) | Full-time employment among 20-24-year-olds (J29) |
| Age (J14) | Labor market recovery outcomes (J48) |
| 15-19-year-olds (J13) | Full recovery in labor market outcomes (J48) |
| 20-24-year-olds (J19) | Sluggish and incomplete recovery in labor market outcomes (F66) |