Working Paper: NBER ID: w29286
Authors: Melissa Schettini Kearney; Phillip B. Levine; Luke W. Pardue
Abstract: This paper documents a set of facts about the dramatic decline in birth rates in the United States between 2007 and 2020 and explores possible explanations. The overall reduction in the birth rate reflects declines across many groups of women, including women who differ by race and ethnicity, age, and level of education. The Great Recession contributed to the decline in the early part of this period, but we are unable to identify any other economic, policy, or social factor that has changed since 2007 that is responsible for much of the decline beyond that. Mechanically, the falling birth rate can be attributed to changes in birth patterns across recent cohorts of women moving through childbearing age. We conjecture that the “shifting priorities” of more recent cohorts, reflecting changes in preferences for having children, aspirations for life, and parenting norms, may be responsible. We conclude with a brief discussion about the societal consequences for a declining birth rate and what the United States might do about it.
Keywords: No keywords provided
JEL Codes: I18; J13
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Great Recession (G01) | decline in U.S. birth rates (J11) |
| changing societal values and norms (Z13) | individual decisions regarding childbearing (J13) |
| individual decisions regarding childbearing (J13) | lower birth rates (J19) |
| decline in birth rates (J11) | fewer children overall (J13) |
| decline in birth rates (J11) | delayed childbearing (J13) |