Working Paper: NBER ID: w29256
Authors: Zachary Ward
Abstract: A large body of evidence finds that relative mobility in the US has declined over the past 150 years. However, long-run mobility estimates are usually based on white samples and therefore do not account for the limited opportunities available for non-white families. Moreover, historical data measure the father’s status with error, which biases estimates toward greater mobility. Using linked census data from 1850-1940, I show that accounting for race and measurement error can double estimates of intergenerational persistence. Updated estimates imply that there is greater equality of opportunity today than in the past, mostly because opportunity was never that equal.
Keywords: No keywords provided
JEL Codes: J62; N31; N32
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| measurement error and race (C83) | historical estimates of intergenerational mobility (J62) |
| correcting for biases (C83) | estimates of intergenerational persistence (D15) |
| father's occupation as proxy for permanent income (E25) | son's economic status (P36) |
| including black families (J12) | father-son association (J12) |
| pre-World War II cohorts (N33) | intergenerational persistence (D15) |
| historical mobility was never as high as previously thought (J62) | idea of America as a land of equal opportunity (I24) |