Working Paper: NBER ID: w29247
Authors: Daron Acemoglu
Abstract: This essay discusses several potential economic, political and social costs of the current path of AI technologies. I argue that if AI continues to be deployed along its current trajectory and remains unregulated, it may produce various social, economic and political harms. These include: damaging competition, consumer privacy and consumer choice; excessively automating work, fueling inequality, inefficiently pushing down wages, and failing to improve worker productivity; and damaging political discourse, democracy's most fundamental lifeblood. Although there is no conclusive evidence suggesting that these costs are imminent or substantial, it may be useful to understand them before they are fully realized and become harder or even impossible to reverse, precisely because of AI's promising and wide-reaching potential. I also suggest that these costs are not inherent to the nature of AI technologies, but are related to how they are being used and developed at the moment - to empower corporations and governments against workers and citizens. As a result, efforts to limit and reverse these costs may need to rely on regulation and policies to redirect AI research. Attempts to contain them just by promoting competition may be insufficient.
Keywords: Artificial Intelligence; Economic Costs; Political Costs; Social Costs; Regulation
JEL Codes: J23; J31; L13; L40; O33; P16
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Unregulated AI (L59) | Harm to competition and consumer privacy (L49) |
| Unregulated AI (L59) | Price discrimination and reduced consumer choice (D40) |
| AI (C45) | Excessive automation of work (L23) |
| Excessive automation of work (L23) | Wage suppression and inequality (F66) |
| AI's trajectory (L93) | Exacerbation of existing labor market problems (F66) |
| AI's trajectory (L93) | Decrease in worker productivity (J29) |
| AI technologies (C45) | Distortion of political discourse (D72) |
| Distortion of political discourse (D72) | Undermining of democratic processes (D72) |