Working Paper: NBER ID: w29145
Authors: Andrew I. Friedson; Moyan Li; Katherine Meckel; Daniel I. Rees; Daniel W. Sacks
Abstract: Medical experts have argued forcefully that using cigarettes harms health, prompting the adoption of myriad anti-smoking policies. The association between smoking and mortality may, however, be driven by unobserved factors, making it difficult to discern the underlying long-term causal relationship. In this study, we explore the effects of cigarette taxes experienced as a teenager, which are arguably exogenous, on adult smoking participation and mortality. A one-dollar increase in teenage cigarette taxes is associated with an 8 percent reduction in adult smoking participation and a 6 percent reduction in mortality. Mortality effects are most pronounced for heart disease and lung cancer.
Keywords: cigarette taxes; smoking; health; mortality
JEL Codes: H2; I10; I12
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Teenage cigarette taxes (H29) | Adult smoking participation (I12) |
| Adult smoking participation (I12) | Mortality (I12) |
| Teenage cigarette taxes (H29) | Mortality (I12) |