Working Paper: NBER ID: w29089
Authors: Andrei Markevich; Natalya Naumenko; Nancy Qian
Abstract: We construct large, unique panel data to study the causes of Ukrainian famine mortality (Holodomor) during 1932-33 and document several new facts: i) Ukraine (the Soviet Union) produced enough food in 1932 to avoid famine in Ukraine (the Soviet Union); ii) mortality was increasing in the pre-famine ethnic Ukrainian population share and unrelated to food productivity across regions; iii) this pattern exists across the Soviet Union, even outside of Ukraine; iv) the pattern was similar at different administrative levels; v) migration restrictions exacerbated mortality; vi) actual and planned grain procurement were increasing, while actual and planned grain retention (production minus procurement) were decreasing in the ethnic Ukrainian population share across regions. Anti-Ukrainian bias in Soviet policy explains up to 92% of famine mortality in Ukraine and 77% in Ukraine, Russia and Belarus; approximately half of the total effect comes from bias in the centrally planned food procurement policy.
Keywords: Ukrainian famine; Holodomor; Soviet policy; famine mortality; ethnic bias
JEL Codes: N14; O1; O13; P16
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| migration restrictions (F22) | famine mortality (J17) |
| grain procurement policies (Q13) | food availability (Q11) |
| food availability (Q11) | famine mortality (J17) |
| anti-Ukrainian bias (J15) | food availability (Q11) |
| anti-Ukrainian bias (J15) | famine mortality (J17) |