Long Run Effects of Aid: Forecasts and Evidence from Sierra Leone

Working Paper: NBER ID: w29079

Authors: Katherine Casey; Rachel Glennerster; Edward Miguel; Maarten J. Voors

Abstract: We evaluate the long-run effects of a decentralized approach to economic development, called community driven development (CDD), a prominent strategy for delivering foreign aid. Notably we revisit a randomized CDD program in Sierra Leone 11 years after launch. We estimate large persistent gains in local public goods and market activity, and modest positive effects on institutions. There is suggestive evidence that CDD slightly improved communities’ response to the 2014 Ebola epidemic. We compare estimates to the forecasts of experts from Sierra Leone and abroad, working in policy and academia, and find that local policymakers are overly optimistic about CDD’s effectiveness.

Keywords: No keywords provided

JEL Codes: H41; I25


Causal Claims Network Graph

Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.


Causal Claims

CauseEffect
gobifo cdd program (C88)local public goods and market activity (H41)
gobifo cdd program (C88)institutions (D02)
gobifo cdd program (C88)communities' response to the 2014 ebola epidemic (H12)

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