Working Paper: NBER ID: w29062
Authors: Raquel Fernández; Sahar Parsa
Abstract: Attitudes towards same-sex relationships in the US have changed radically over a relatively short period of time. After remaining fairly constant for over two decades, opinions became more favorable starting in 1992—a presidential election year in which the Democratic and Republican parties took opposing stands over the status of gay people in society. What roles did political parties and their leaders play in this process of cultural change? Using a variety of techniques including machine learning, we show that the partisan opinion gap emerged substantially prior to 1992—in the mid 1980s —and did not increase as a result of the political debates in 1992-'93. Furthermore, we identify people with a college-and-above education as the potential "leaders" of the process of partisan divergence.
Keywords: same-sex relationships; partisan divergence; public opinion; political parties
JEL Codes: P16; Z1; Z13
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Partisan opinion gap emerged prior to 1992 (D72) | Partisan divergence (D79) |
| Political debates in 1992-93 (E65) | Partisan divergence (D79) |
| National party elite (D72) | Partisan differences (D72) |
| Political party affiliation (Democrats vs. Republicans) (D72) | Approval of same-sex relationships (J12) |
| Education levels (I21) | Approval of same-sex relationships (J12) |