Working Paper: NBER ID: w29058
Authors: Gordon Dahl; Runjing Lu; William Mullins
Abstract: Changes in political leadership drive sharp changes in public policy and partisan beliefs about the future. We exploit the surprise 2016 election of Trump to identify the effects of a shift in political power on one of the most consequential household decisions: whether to have a child. Republican-leaning counties experience a sharp and persistent increase in fertility relative to Democratic counties, a shift amounting to 1.2 to 2.2% of the national fertility rate. In addition, Hispanics see fertility fall relative to non-Hispanics, especially compared to rural or evangelical whites.
Keywords: fertility; political power; partisanship; presidential elections
JEL Codes: D72; J13
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| 2016 presidential election (K16) | fertility rates in Republican-leaning counties (J19) |
| 2016 presidential election (K16) | fertility rates in Democratic counties (J19) |
| fertility rates in Republican-leaning counties (J19) | gap in fertility rates between Republican and Democratic counties (J19) |
| Trump campaign's rhetoric (D79) | Hispanic fertility rates (J13) |
| Hispanic fertility rates (J13) | non-Hispanic fertility rates (J19) |
| Republican vote share change (D72) | fertility rates (J13) |