Working Paper: NBER ID: w29056
Authors: Orazio Attanasio; Lina Cardona Sosa; Carlos Medina; Costas Meghir; Christian Manuel Posso-Suarez
Abstract: Conditional Cash transfer (CCT) programs have been shown to have positive effects on a variety of outcomes including education, consumption and health visits, amongst others. We estimate the long-run impacts of the urban version of Familias en Acción, the Colombian CCT program on crime, teenage pregnancy, high school dropout and college enrollment using a Regression Discontinuity design on administrative data. ITT estimates show a reduction on arrest rates of 2.7pp for men and a reduction on teenage pregnancy of 2.3pp for women. High school dropout rates were reduced by 5.8pp and college enrollment was increased by 1.7pp for men.
Keywords: Conditional Cash Transfer; Welfare Programs; Long-term Effects; Colombia
JEL Codes: D04; I23; I28; I31; J13; K42
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| increased schooling (J24) | reduction in arrest rates among men (J79) |
| increased schooling (J24) | reduction in teenage pregnancy rates among women (J13) |
| increased schooling (J24) | reduction in high school dropout rates (I21) |
| increased schooling (J24) | increase in college enrollment rates for men (I23) |
| Familias en Acción (FEA) program eligibility (I38) | participation in the program (I24) |
| participation in the program (I24) | reduction in arrest rates among men (J79) |
| participation in the program (I24) | reduction in teenage pregnancy rates among women (J13) |
| participation in the program (I24) | reduction in high school dropout rates (I21) |
| participation in the program (I24) | increase in college enrollment rates for men (I23) |