Working Paper: NBER ID: w29038
Authors: Joseph J. Sabia; Dhaval M. Dave; Fawaz Alotaibi; Daniel I. Rees
Abstract: Recreational marijuana laws (RMLs), which legalize the possession of small quantities of marijuana for recreational use, have been adopted by 18 states and the District of Columbia. Opponents argue that RML-induced increases in marijuana consumption will serve as a “gateway” to harder drug use and crime. Using data covering the period 2000-2019 from a variety of national sources (the National Survey of Drug Use and Health, the Uniform Crime Reports, the National Vital Statistics System, and the Treatment Episode Data Set) this study is the first to comprehensively examine the effects of legalizing recreational marijuana on hard drug use, arrests, drug overdose deaths, suicides, and treatment admissions. Our analyses show that RMLs increase adult marijuana use and reduce drug-related arrests over an average post-legalization window of three to four years. There is little evidence to suggest that RML-induced increases in marijuana consumption encourage the use of harder substances or violent criminal activity, and some evidence that RMLs may aid in reducing opioid-related mortality.
Keywords: Recreational Marijuana; Hard Drug Use; Crime; Public Health
JEL Codes: I12; I18; K14
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| RMLs (R50) | adult marijuana use (I12) |
| RMLs (R50) | drug-related arrests (K42) |
| RMLs (R50) | opioid-related mortality (I12) |
| RMLs (R50) | harder drug use (I12) |
| RMLs (R50) | nonmedical prescription opioids use (K42) |
| RMLs (R50) | overall arrests for property or violent offenses (K42) |