Working Paper: NBER ID: w28982
Authors: Edward E. Leamer
Abstract: Using the recession recovery point equal to the month when private payrolls first exceeded their previous peak level, this paper argues that it was the negative secular trend in manufacturing jobs that was the most important determinant of the length and depth of the last three recessions/recoveries. This negative secular trend changed the layoff/recall pattern of jobs in manufacturing into permanent displacements, a malady that lengthened the recovery periods and that is not the explicit target of either traditional monetary policy or traditional fiscal policy. Using the ideas gathered from an examination of the US two-digit sectoral data for the US overall, attention turns to the recession/recoveries of the 50 US states in the last three national recession periods. Regressions that explain the lengths and depths of the recessions in 50 US states reveal the importance of construction jobs, but the most important predictor was manufacturing jobs: the greater the share of manufacturing jobs prior to the recession, the worse was the recession/recovery.
Keywords: No keywords provided
JEL Codes: E3; E32
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| share of manufacturing jobs (L60) | recovery duration (C41) |
| negative secular trend in manufacturing jobs (F66) | recovery duration (C41) |
| shift from V-shaped to L-shaped recovery (P27) | recovery duration (C41) |
| share of manufacturing jobs (L60) | recession recovery outcomes (E65) |