Working Paper: NBER ID: w28930
Authors: Virat Agrawal; Jonathan H. Cantor; Neeraj Sood; Christopher M. Whaley
Abstract: As a way of slowing COVID-19 transmission, many countries and U.S. states implemented shelter-in-place (SIP) policies. However, the effects of SIP policies on public health are a-priori ambiguous. Using an event study approach and data from 43 countries and all U.S. states, we measure changes in excess deaths following the implementation of COVID-19 shelter-in-place (SIP) policies. We do not find that countries or U.S. states that implemented SIP policies earlier had lower excess deaths. We do not observe differences in excess deaths before and after the implementation of SIP policies, even when accounting for pre-SIP COVID-19 death rates.
Keywords: COVID-19; shelter-in-place policies; excess mortality
JEL Codes: I1; I12; I18; I28
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| SIP policies implementation (D78) | excess mortality (I12) |
| excess mortality pre-SIP (I12) | SIP policies implementation (D78) |
| SIP policies implementation (D78) | excess mortality post-SIP (I12) |
| SIP policies effectiveness in island nations (F68) | excess mortality (I12) |
| political dysfunction + relaxation of risk mitigation strategies (H12) | excess mortality (I12) |