Working Paper: NBER ID: w28909
Authors: Mark Hoekstra; Sandra Orozco-Aleman
Abstract: Recent years have witnessed the emergence of increasingly provocative anti-immigrant politicians in both Europe and the United States. We examine whether the 2016 election of Donald Trump, who made illegal immigration and border enforcement a centerpiece of his campaign, reduced illegal immigration into the U.S. We exploit the fact the election result was widely unexpected and thus generated a large, overnight change in expected immigration policy and rhetoric. We compare migration flows before and after the election and find that while it reduced immigration among deported Mexicans and at least temporarily among Central Americans, it had no effect on the overall inflow of unauthorized Mexican workers.
Keywords: No keywords provided
JEL Codes: J15; J6; J61
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| 2016 presidential election (K16) | immigration policy expectations (K37) |
| 2016 presidential election (K16) | migration flows (F22) |
| 2016 presidential election (K16) | intention to re-emigrate among deported Mexicans (F22) |
| 2016 presidential election (K16) | US border apprehensions among Central Americans (K37) |