Working Paper: NBER ID: w28905
Authors: Chiara Franzoni; Paula Stephan; Reinhilde Veugelers
Abstract: The speed with which Covid-19 vaccines were developed and their high-performance underlines how much society depends on the pace of scientific research and how effective science can be. This is especially the case for vaccines based on the new designer mRNA technology. We draw on this exceptional moment for science to reflect on whether the government funding system is sufficiently supportive of research needed for key breakthroughs, and whether the system of funding encourages sufficient risk-taking to induce scientists to explore transformative research paths. We begin with a discussion of the challenges faced by scientists who did pioneering-research related to mRNA-based drugs in getting support for research. We describe measures developed to distinguish risky from non-risky research and their citation footprint. We review empirical work suggesting that funding is biased against risky research and provide a framework for thinking about why principal investigators, panelists and funding agencies may eschew risky research. We close with a discussion of interventions that government agencies and universities could follow if they wish to avoid a bias against risk.
Keywords: COVID-19; mRNA; government funding; risk-taking; scientific research
JEL Codes: I23; O31; O38
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| government funding system (H61) | support for transformative research (O32) |
| insufficient funding (H72) | decreased risk-taking (D91) |
| pressure for quick results (C54) | risk aversion in funding decisions (D81) |
| reliance on bibliometric indicators (A14) | risk aversion in funding decisions (D81) |
| risk aversion (D81) | fewer resources allocated to innovative research projects (O32) |
| historical context of funding decisions (N30) | missed opportunities for breakthroughs (O36) |
| policy changes (J18) | increased likelihood of funding for risky research (I23) |