Working Paper: NBER ID: w28848
Authors: Timothy J. Moore; Kevin T. Schnepel
Abstract: In 2001, a large and sustained supply shock halted a heroin epidemic in Australia. We use drug offenses to identify individual opioid users and examine how the shock affected their mortality risks and criminal activity over the next eight years. Initially, gains from fewer overdoses are offset by drug substitution and more crime, including homicides. Most adverse effects dissipate over time, while persistent mortality reductions save the lives of around one in 48 individuals in our sample. Our results demonstrate that reducing the supply of illicit opioids can lead to meaningful longer-term improvements, even when the short-term effects are ambiguous.
Keywords: opioid use; heroin supply reduction; health outcomes; crime rates
JEL Codes: I12; K42
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Heroin supply reduction (H57) | Opioid-related mortality (I12) |
| Heroin supply reduction (H57) | Arrests for opioid possession (K42) |
| Heroin supply reduction (H57) | Violent crime (homicides and assaults) (K42) |
| Heroin supply reduction (H57) | Property crime (K42) |
| Heroin supply reduction (H57) | Specific property crime (robbery) (K42) |