Working Paper: NBER ID: w28813
Authors: Joanna Aleksandra Kopinska; Vincenzo Atella; Jay Bhattacharya; Grant Miller
Abstract: Standard measures of bodyweight (overweight and obese, for example) fail to reflect technological progress over time - and in particular, recent progress disproportionately promoting longevity at higher bodyweights (and differences in access to it). This paper builds on the pioneering work of Hans Waaler (Waaler, 1984) and Robert Fogel (Fogel, 1994) to empirically estimate how technological progress, and differential access to it, have fundamentally transformed the relationship between body mass index (BMI) and longevity in high-, middle-, and low-income countries. Importantly, we show that the combined effect of technological progress and access to it across countries is so profound that the share of national populations above mortality-minimizing bodyweight is not clearly greater in countries with higher overweight and obesity rates (as traditionally defined) - and in fact, relative to current standards, a larger share of low-income countries’ populations can be unhealthily heavy.
Keywords: bodyweight; longevity; technological progress; BMI; health technology
JEL Codes: I1; I14; I15; O33
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Technological progress (O49) | Mortality risk (J17) |
| Access to health technologies (I14) | Mortality risk (J17) |
| BMI (I12) | Mortality risk (J17) |
| Technological progress (O49) | Minimum risk body weight (I12) |
| Minimum risk body weight (I12) | Mortality risk (J17) |
| BMI (I12) | Minimum risk body weight (I12) |