Working Paper: NBER ID: w28789
Authors: Jesse Kalinowski; Matthew B. Ross; Stephen L. Ross
Abstract: African-American motorists may adjust their driving in response to increased scrutiny by police. In daylight, when their race is more easily observable, minority motorists are the only group less likely to have fatal motor vehicle accidents. In Massachusetts and Tennessee, we find that African-Americans are the only group of stopped motorists with slower speeds in daylight. Consistent with an illustrative model, these speed shifts are concentrated at higher percentiles of the distribution. Calibration of this model indicates this behavior creates substantial bias in conventional tests of discrimination that rely on changes in the odds a stopped motorist is a minority.
Keywords: Racial Profiling; Traffic Stops; Behavioral Response; Police Discrimination; Driving Behavior
JEL Codes: H11; I38; J71; J78; K14; K42; R41
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| African American motorists slow down during daylight hours (R48) | likelihood of fatal accidents involving African American motorists decreases (R48) |
| behavioral adjustments of minority motorists in response to perceived discrimination (J15) | racial composition of traffic stops changes (R48) |
| behavioral adjustments of minority motorists in response to perceived discrimination (J15) | interpretation of discrimination tests changes (J71) |
| speed distribution of stopped minority motorists shifts downward at higher percentiles in daylight (R48) | perceived discrimination influences driving behavior (J71) |