Working Paper: NBER ID: w28753
Authors: Charles J. Courtemanche; Anh H. Le; Aaron Yelowitz; Ron Zimmer
Abstract: This paper examines the effect of fall 2020 school reopenings in Texas on county-level COVID-19 cases and fatalities. Previous evidence suggests that schools can be reopened safely if community spread is low and public health guidelines are followed. However, in Texas, reopenings often occurred alongside high community spread and at near capacity, making it difficult to meet social distancing recommendations. Using event-study models and hand-collected instruction modality and start dates for all school districts, we find robust evidence that reopening Texas schools gradually but substantially accelerated the community spread of COVID-19. Results from our preferred specification imply that school reopenings led to at least 43,000 additional COVID-19 cases and 800 additional fatalities within the first two months. We then use SafeGraph mobility data to provide evidence that spillovers to adults’ behaviors contributed to these large effects. Median time spent outside the home on a typical weekday increased substantially in neighborhoods with large numbers of school-age children, suggesting a return to in-person work or increased outside-of-home leisure activities among parents.
Keywords: COVID-19; school reopenings; mobility; Texas
JEL Codes: I18; I28
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Reopening of schools (I23) | Increased COVID-19 cases (I19) |
| Reopening of schools (I23) | Increased fatalities (I12) |
| Increased mobility among adults (J62) | Increased COVID-19 cases (I19) |
| Increased mobility among adults (J62) | Increased fatalities (I12) |
| Reopening of schools (I23) | Increased mobility among adults (J62) |