Working Paper: NBER ID: w28741
Authors: M. Kate Bundorf; Jill DeMatteis; Grant Miller; Maria Polyakova; Jialu L. Streeter; Jonathan Wivagg
Abstract: We analyze data from a survey we administered during the COVID-19 pandemic to investigate the relationship between people's subjective risk beliefs and their protective behaviors. We report three main findings. First, on average, people substantially overestimate the absolute level of risk associated with economic activity, but have correct signals about their relative risk. Second, people who believe that they face a higher risk of infection are more likely to report avoiding economic activities. Third, government mandates restricting economic behavior attenuate the relationship between subjective risk beliefs and protective behaviors.
Keywords: COVID-19; Risk Perceptions; Protective Behaviors; Government Mandates
JEL Codes: H0; I1
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Individuals' subjective risk beliefs related to COVID-19 (D80) | Cognitive bias in risk assessment (D91) |
| Individuals' subjective risk beliefs related to COVID-19 (D80) | Protective behaviors (D18) |
| Government mandates (L51) | Protective behaviors (D18) |
| Government mandates (L51) | Attenuate relationship between subjective risk perceptions and protective behaviors (E71) |