Working Paper: NBER ID: w28731
Authors: jose maria barrero; nicholas bloom; steven j davis
Abstract: COVID-19 drove a mass social experiment in working from home (WFH). We survey more than 30,000 Americans over multiple waves to investigate whether WFH will stick, and why. Our data say that 20 percent of full workdays will be supplied from home after the pandemic ends, compared with just 5 percent before. We develop evidence on five reasons for this large shift: better-than-expected WFH experiences, new investments in physical and human capital that enable WFH, greatly diminished stigma associated with WFH, lingering concerns about crowds and contagion risks, and a pandemic-driven surge in technological innovations that support WFH. We also use our survey data to project three consequences: First, employees will enjoy large benefits from greater remote work, especially those with higher earnings. Second, the shift to WFH will directly reduce spending in major city centers by at least 5-10 percent relative to the pre-pandemic situation. Third, our data on employer plans and the relative productivity of WFH imply a 5 percent productivity boost in the post-pandemic economy due to re-optimized working arrangements. Only one-fifth of this productivity gain will show up in conventional productivity measures, because they do not capture the time savings from less commuting.
Keywords: working from home; remote work; COVID-19; productivity; urban economics
JEL Codes: D13; D23; E24; G18; J22; M54; R3
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| better-than-expected experiences with WFH (J29) | persistence of WFH post-pandemic (J29) |
| investments in capital that facilitate WFH (G31) | persistence of WFH post-pandemic (J29) |
| diminished stigma associated with remote work (J62) | persistence of WFH post-pandemic (J29) |
| lingering health concerns (I12) | persistence of WFH post-pandemic (J29) |
| surge in technological innovations (O39) | persistence of WFH post-pandemic (J29) |
| higher earnings (J31) | greater remote work benefits (J32) |
| shift to WFH (J29) | 5-10% reduction in spending in major city centers (R12) |
| reoptimized working arrangements (L23) | 4-6% productivity boost (J24) |
| reduced commuting (R49) | time saved (C41) |