Working Paper: NBER ID: w28726
Authors: Abhijit Banerjee; Arun G. Chandrasekhar; Suresh Dalpath; Esther Duflo; John Floretta; Matthew O. Jackson; Harini Kannan; Francine N. Loza; Anirudh Sankar; Anna Schrimpf; Maheshwor Shrestha
Abstract: Policymakers often choose a policy bundle that is a combination of different interventions in different dosages. We develop a new technique—treatment variant aggregation (TVA)—to select a policy from a large factorial design. TVA pools together policy variants that are not meaningfully different and prunes those deemed ineffective. This allows us to restrict attention to aggregated policy variants, consistently estimate their effects on the outcome, and estimate the best policy effect adjusting for the winner’s curse. We apply TVA to a large randomized controlled trial that tests interventions to stimulate demand for immunization in Haryana, India. The policies under consideration include reminders, incentives, and local ambassadors for community mobilization. Cross-randomizing these interventions, with different dosages or types of each intervention, yields 75 combinations. The policy with the largest impact (which combines incentives, ambassadors who are information hubs, and reminders) increases the number of immunizations by 44% relative to the status quo. The most cost-effective policy (information hubs, ambassadors, and SMS reminders but no incentives) increases the number of immunizations per dollar by 9.1% relative to status quo.
Keywords: nudges; immunization; randomized controlled trial; public health; cost-effectiveness
JEL Codes: C18; C93; D83; I15; O12; O15
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| low and high incentives (M52) | equally effective in increasing immunizations (I19) |
| low and high levels of SMS coverage (L96) | equally effective in increasing immunizations (I19) |
| best policy (incentives, SMS reminders, information diffusion) (D82) | increased number of immunizations (I19) |
| most cost-effective policy (information hubs, SMS reminders) (G52) | increased number of immunizations per dollar spent (H51) |