Working Paper: NBER ID: w28694
Authors: Bruno Pellegrino; Enrico Spolaore; Romain Wacziarg
Abstract: Observed patterns of international investment are difficult to reconcile with frictionless capital markets. In this paper, we provide a quantitative theory of international capital allocation: a multicountry dynamic general equilibrium model with rationally-inattentive investors, where cross-border investment is subject to both information and policy frictions. These frictions result in a persistent misallocation of capital across countries. We estimate model parameters using nationality-based, bilateral investment data, and measures of geographic, linguistic and cultural distance, which capture information frictions. Our unified theoretical-empirical framework can account for several stylized facts: the gravity structure of investment flows, home bias, persistent global imbalances and capital return differentials across countries, as well as the paucity of net flows from developed to emerging economies. Finally, we perform counterfactual exercises: we find that information and policy barriers to international investment greatly amplify the capital gap between rich and poor countries, and result in a large reduction in world output.
Keywords: international investment; capital allocation; information frictions; policy barriers; global imbalances
JEL Codes: E22; E44; F2; F3; F4; G15; O4
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| information and policy barriers (J68) | persistent misallocation of capital (E22) |
| persistent misallocation of capital (E22) | significant reduction in global output (F69) |
| persistent misallocation of capital (E22) | amplifies capital gap between rich and poor countries (F63) |
| information frictions (D89) | influence international asset positions (F30) |
| barriers (F55) | capital misallocation (E22) |
| removing barriers (J68) | higher rates of return in emerging economies (G15) |
| home bias (F23) | expected returns (G17) |