Working Paper: NBER ID: w28664
Authors: Marianne Bertrand; Bruno Crépon; Alicia Marguerie; Patrick Premand
Abstract: Workfare programs are one of the most popular social protection and employment policy instruments in the developing world. They evoke the promise of efficient targeting, as well as immediate and lasting impacts on participants’ employment, earnings, skills and behaviors. This paper evaluates contemporaneous and post-program impacts of a public works intervention in Côte d’Ivoire. The program was randomized among urban youths who self-selected to participate and provided seven months of employment at the formal minimum wage. Randomized subsets of beneficiaries also received complementary training on basic entrepreneurship or job search skills. During the program, results show limited impacts on the likelihood of employment, but a shift toward wage jobs, higher earnings and savings, as well as changes in work habits and behaviors. Fifteen months after the program ended, savings stock remain higher, but there are no lasting impacts on employment or behaviors, and only limited impacts on earnings. Machine learning techniques are applied to assess whether program targeting can improve. Significant heterogeneity in impacts on earnings is found during the program but not post-program. Departing from self-targeting improves performance: a range of practical targeting mechanisms achieve impacts close to a machine learning benchmark by maximizing contemporaneous impacts without reducing post-program impacts. Impacts on earnings remain substantially below program costs even under improved targeting.
Keywords: workfare programs; employment; earnings; Côte d'Ivoire
JEL Codes: C93; H53; I38; J24; O12
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Improved targeting mechanisms (E61) | Program effectiveness (I24) |
| Participation in the program (I24) | Employment likelihood (J68) |
| Participation in the program (I24) | Composition of employment (J21) |
| Participation in the program (I24) | Monthly earnings (J31) |
| Participation in the program (I24) | Savings (D14) |
| Participation in the program (I24) | Behavioral changes (D91) |
| Post-program participation (J68) | Employment likelihood (J68) |
| Post-program participation (J68) | Hours worked (J22) |
| Post-program participation (J68) | Composition of employment (J21) |
| Post-program participation (J68) | Earnings (J31) |
| Savings (D14) | Work habits (J29) |