Working Paper: NBER ID: w28656
Authors: Jeremy Greenwood; Nezih Guner; Ricardo Marto
Abstract: The 20th century beheld a dramatic transformation of the family. Some Kuznets style facts regarding structural change in the family are presented. Over the course of the 20th century in the United States fertility declined, educational attainment waxed, housework fell, leisure increased, jobs shifted from blue to white collar, and marriage waned. These trends are also observed in the cross-country data. A model is developed, and then calibrated, to address the trends in the US data. The calibration procedure is closely connected to the underlying economic logic. Three drivers of the great transition are considered: neutral technological progress, skill-biased technological change, and drops in the price of labor-saving household durables.
Keywords: Family Economics; Structural Change; Technological Progress
JEL Codes: D10; E13; J10; O10
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| neutral technological progress (O49) | decline in fertility rates (J13) |
| skill-biased technological change (J24) | decline in fertility rates (J13) |
| neutral technological progress (O49) | rise in educational attainment (I24) |
| skill-biased technological change (J24) | rise in educational attainment (I24) |
| process innovation in household durables (L68) | decline in housework (D13) |
| process innovation in household durables (L68) | increased female labor supply (J21) |
| process innovation in household durables (L68) | decrease in marriage rates (J12) |
| technological advancements (O33) | affect wages (J31) |
| wages (J31) | influence labor supply decisions (J29) |
| wages (J31) | influence fertility (J13) |
| wages (J31) | influence educational attainment (I24) |