Working Paper: NBER ID: w28614
Authors: Jamie T. Mullins; Prashant Bharadwaj
Abstract: Do people move as a result of temperature shocks? Documenting weather as a push factor for migration is crucial for informing policy related to climate change and adaptation. This paper studies the impacts of high-temperature days on out-migration from counties in the US. We find that outmigration responds to long-term variation in temperatures, but not to the short-term temperature variations that are commonly leveraged in the literature. We provide evidence consistent with the idea that the effect of long-term variation in temperature is driven by changes in expectations regarding future conditions, and specifically climate change.
Keywords: No keywords provided
JEL Codes: Q0
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Long-term temperature variations (E32) | Outmigration rates (F22) |
| Each additional day at 90°F (C41) | Yearly outgoing migration flows (F22) |
| Long-term temperature variations (E32) | Changes in expectations regarding future conditions (D84) |
| Changes in expectations regarding future conditions (D84) | Migration decisions (F22) |
| Belief in global warming (F64) | Effects of high temperatures on migration (J61) |