Working Paper: NBER ID: w28555
Authors: David Neumark; Maysen Yen
Abstract: We analyze the impacts of recent city minimum wage increases in California and nationwide, following a pre-analysis plan (PAP) registered prior to the release of data covering two years of minimum wage increases. For California cities we find a hint of negative employment effects. Nationally, we find some evidence of disemployment effects for teens, but not young adults or high school dropouts. City-specific analyses provide limited evidence of adverse effects on the share low-income, but the pooled city analysis does not; the national analysis generally finds no impact on the share low-income, with one exception that may reflect prior trends.
Keywords: Minimum Wage; Employment Effects; Poverty; California
JEL Codes: J23; J38
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Minimum wage increases (J38) | negative employment effects for teenagers (F66) |
| Minimum wage increases (J38) | negative employment effects for young adults (F66) |
| Minimum wage increases (J38) | negative employment effects for high school dropouts (I21) |
| Minimum wage increases (J38) | negative employment effects nationally (F66) |
| Minimum wage increases (J38) | adverse effects on low-income individuals (I32) |
| Minimum wage increases (J38) | significant impact on share of low-income individuals (I24) |