Working Paper: NBER ID: w28519
Authors: Nikhil Agarwal; Andrew Komo; Chetan A. Patel; Parag A. Pathak; M. Utku Nver
Abstract: Calls for eliminating prioritization for SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are growing amid concerns that prioritization reduces vaccination speed. We use an SEIR model to study the effects of vaccination distribution on public health, comparing prioritization policy and speed under mitigation measures that are either eased during the vaccine rollout or sustained through the end of the pandemic period. NASEM's recommended prioritization results in fewer deaths than no prioritization, but does not minimize total deaths. If mitigation measures are eased, abandoning NASEM will result in about 134,000 more deaths at 30 million vaccinations per month. Vaccination speed must be at least 53% higher under no prioritization to avoid increasing deaths. With sustained mitigation, discarding NASEM prioritization will result in 42,000 more deaths, requiring only a 26% increase in speed to hold deaths constant. Therefore, abandoning NASEM's prioritization to increase vaccination speed without substantially increasing deaths may require sustained mitigation.
Keywords: Vaccination; Public Health; SEIR Model; Prioritization; Cumulative Mortality
JEL Codes: I1
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Vaccination prioritization (I14) | Cumulative deaths (J17) |
| No prioritization (C69) | Cumulative deaths (J17) |
| Vaccination speed (C69) | Cumulative deaths (J17) |
| Vaccination speed (26% increase) (C69) | Cumulative deaths (J17) |