Working Paper: NBER ID: w28508
Authors: Morris A. Davis; Jesse M. Gregory; Daniel A. Hartley; Kegon T.K. Tan
Abstract: Researchers and policy-makers have explored the possibility of restricting the use of housing vouchers to neighborhoods that may positively affect the outcomes of children. Using the framework of a dynamic model of optimal location choice, we estimate preferences over neighborhoods of likely recipients of housing vouchers in Los Angeles. We combine simulations of the model with estimates of how locations affect adult earnings of children to understand how a voucher policy that restricts neighborhoods in which voucher-recipients may live affects both the location decisions of households and the adult earnings of children. We show the model can nearly replicate the impact of the Moving to Opportunity experiment on the adult wages of children. Simulations suggest a policy that restricts housing vouchers to the top 20% of neighborhoods maximizes expected aggregate adult earnings of children of households offered these vouchers.
Keywords: housing vouchers; neighborhood effects; intergenerational mobility; adult earnings; location choice
JEL Codes: I24; I31; I38; J13; R23; R38
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| restricting housing vouchers to top 10% neighborhoods (R28) | aggregate adult earnings of all children from renting households (G59) |
| restricting housing vouchers to top 20% neighborhoods (R28) | adult earnings of children from voucher-eligible households (I24) |
| housing voucher policies (R28) | adult earnings of children (J31) |
| location-restricted voucher program (R38) | adult earnings of children from voucher-eligible households (I24) |
| random neighborhood choice by MTO recipients (R23) | expected average adult earnings of children (J39) |
| location-restricted voucher program (R38) | intergenerational mobility for low-income households (J62) |