Working Paper: NBER ID: w28356
Authors: Marco Del Angel; Caroline Fohlin; Marc D. Weidenmier
Abstract: We study the impact of the 1918 Spanish Flu on U.S. stock prices. We use the death rate to control for the impact of the global pandemic and war news reported in the New York Times to capture the positive effects of the end of World War I on stock prices. Using a new weekly hand collected NYSE stock price index, we show that there is a -.73 correlation between the aggregate stock market and the death rate. Furthermore, vector autoregressions demonstrate that the death rate can explain up to 24 percent of the forecast error variance in the aggregate stock index from September 1918 until the end of the pandemic in March 1920. We also find that the flu had a significant, but varied impact on nine NYSE sectors. The empirical analysis indicates that pandemics can matter big time for stock prices.
Keywords: Spanish flu; stock prices; pandemics; vector autoregressions
JEL Codes: G1; I1; N2
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| log of the death rate (J11) | log of the aggregate stock index (C43) |
| log of the death rate (J11) | automobile index (L62) |
| log of the death rate (J11) | consumer products index (C43) |
| war news (H56) | log of the aggregate stock index (C43) |