Working Paper: NBER ID: w28307
Authors: Phillip B. Levine; Robin McKnight
Abstract: This paper examines the impact of school shootings on the educational performance and long-term health consequences of students who survive them, highlighting the impact of indiscriminate, high-fatality incidents. Initially, we focus on test scores in the years following a shooting. We also examine whether exposure to a shooting affects chronic absenteeism, which may play a role in explaining any such effect, and school expenditures, which may counteract it. We analyze national, school-district level data and additional school-level data from Connecticut in this part of the analysis. In terms of effects on health status, we focus on its most extreme measure, mortality in the years following a shooting. In this part of the analysis, we analyze county-level data on mortality by cause. In all analyses, we treat the timing of these events as random, enabling us to identify causal effects. Our results indicate that indiscriminate, high-fatality school shootings, such as those that occurred at Sandy Hook and Columbine, have considerable adverse effects on students exposed to them. We cannot rule out substantive effects of other types of shootings with fewer or no fatalities.
Keywords: school shootings; educational performance; health consequences; long-term wellbeing
JEL Codes: I18; I21
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Exposure to indiscriminate high-fatality school shootings (I12) | Declines in test scores among affected students (I21) |
| Exposure to indiscriminate high-fatality school shootings (I12) | Increased rates of chronic absenteeism (I21) |
| Exposure to indiscriminate high-fatality school shootings (I12) | Increased expenditures in affected districts (H52) |
| Increased expenditures in affected districts (H52) | Insufficient mitigation of negative impacts on students (I24) |
| Exposure to school shootings (I24) | Increased mortality rates among students aged 14 to 18 (I12) |