Working Paper: NBER ID: w28304
Authors: Francesco Bianchi; Giada Bianchi; Dongho Song
Abstract: We adopt a time series approach to investigate the historical relation between unemployment, life expectancy, and mortality rates. We fit Vector-autoregressions for the overall US population and for groups identified based on gender and race. We use our results to assess the long-run effects of the COVID-19 economic recession on mortality and life expectancy. We estimate the size of the COVID-19-related unemployment shock to be between 2 and 5 times larger than the typical unemployment shock, depending on race and gender, resulting in a significant increase in mortality rates and drop in life expectancy. We also predict that the shock will disproportionately affect African-Americans and women, over a short horizon, while the effects for white men will unfold over longer horizons. These figures translate in more than 0.8 million additional deaths over the next 15 years.
Keywords: COVID-19; unemployment; life expectancy; mortality rates; health outcomes
JEL Codes: C32; E32; I14; J11
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| unemployment shock (J64) | life expectancy (J17) |
| unemployment shock (J64) | mortality rates (I12) |
| typical unemployment shock (J64) | life expectancy (J17) |
| typical unemployment shock (J64) | mortality rates (I12) |
| COVID-19 unemployment shock (J64) | mortality rates (I12) |
| COVID-19 unemployment shock (J64) | life expectancy (J17) |
| unemployment shock (African Americans) (J65) | mortality rates (I12) |
| unemployment shock (African Americans) (J65) | life expectancy (J17) |
| unemployment shock (white population) (J65) | mortality rates (I12) |
| unemployment shock (white population) (J65) | life expectancy (J17) |