Working Paper: NBER ID: w28303
Authors: Casey B. Mulligan
Abstract: Weekly mortality through October 3 is partitioned into normal deaths, COVID, and nonCOVID excess deaths (NCEDs). Before March, the excess is negative for the elderly, likely due to the mild flu season. From March onward, excess deaths are approximately 250,000 of which about 17,000 appear to be a COVID undercount and 30,000 non-COVID. Deaths of despair (drug overdose, suicide, alcohol) in 2017 and 2018 are good predictors of the demographic groups with NCEDs in 2020. The NCEDs are disproportionately experienced by men aged 15-55, including men aged 15-25. Local data on opioid overdoses further support the hypothesis that the pandemic and recession were associated with a 10 to 60 percent increase in deaths of despair above already high pre-pandemic levels.
Keywords: COVID-19; deaths of despair; excess mortality; opioid use; economic conditions
JEL Codes: H22; I18; L51
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| COVID-19 pandemic (H12) | increase in deaths of despair (I12) |
| recession (E32) | increase in deaths of despair (I12) |
| COVID-19 pandemic and recession (F44) | non-COVID excess deaths of despair (I12) |
| opioid use (I12) | deaths of despair (I12) |
| unemployment rate (J64) | opioid fatalities (I12) |
| personal income increase (D31) | opioid use (I12) |
| historical DOD data (Y10) | predict demographic groups affected in 2020 (J11) |
| local data on opioid overdoses (Y10) | hypothesis of increased deaths of despair (I12) |